Covid-19 Pandemic in Algeria - Demographic Approach to the Reality and Prospects of this Pandemic

Abstract

This study aims to examine the COVID-19 pandemic in Algeria by analyzing the evolution of confirmed cases, the characteristics of infected individuals, and forecasting its future trends. Using the daily statistical reports published by the Algerian Ministry of Health and applying a set of statistical methods, the study found that males accounted for the highest proportion of both confirmed cases and deaths. It also revealed that all age groups were affected by the pandemic, particularly younger populations, while the elderly were the most vulnerable to mortality. Furthermore, the pandemic spread across the entire country, with a marked concentration in a number of major and geographically adjacent provinces (wilayas). For forecasting purposes, the ARIMA model was employed, and the results predict an increase in the number of active cases due to the continued rise in confirmed infections, accompanied by a decline in the number of deaths and an increase in recoveries through 20 June.